The Fallout show is a smash hit amongst critics and fans alike and has led to a resurgence of nearly every game in the series. The franchise is firmly in the cultural zeitgeist right now and has many people asking: What’s next for Fallout? While this answer is not cut and dry, let’s sit down and try to figure out what the next few years of the franchise might look like after its newfound rise in cultural relevance.
Hit Transmedia franchise?
The Fallout show on Amazon Prime has been recognized as one of if not the best video game to screen adaptations ever made. The show is one of the three most viewed titles ever for Amazon Prime, and when you consider that hit shows like The Boys exist on the platform, Fallout is clearly a massive success and already a juggernaut in the Television space. Season 2 was quickly confirmed after the show was released on April 10th, and fans have plenty to look forward to after the first seasons ending hints at the show heading to a fan favorite location.
While we can make educated guesses at what Season 2 may hold, it’s currently unclear how long the Fallout TV Show might last. While ratings and money will always be top priority for executives, it also depends on how much story the showrunners and Bethesda want to explore in TV format.
We know that the show is canon, meaning what is happening in the show has drastic implications for the franchises lore and future games releases. How much story will Bethesda be okay with exploring in a non-game format? Will it ever hit a point where the show goes too far beyond where Bethesda wants to explore in the game? Those questions will need to be answered, and I expect Bethesda is actively thinking about what future seasons will mean for the franchise.
And what about other explorations of the universe in other mediums? Will we see an expansion into comics, movies, or spinoffs of the show itself? Bethesda have long kept the franchise close to the vest. It took years and years of failed pitches before Todd Howard met with Jonathan Nolan and accepted his idea of what became the Fallout TV show.
Will there be pressure from executives at Microsoft to explore how to further expand Fallout into a great transmedia franchise? Money talks, and I wouldn’t be shocked if Xbox Head Phil Spencer’s eyes lit up with a different skew of green after seeing this recent success.
While Fallout as a transmedia property is currently a question mark, we know that the most important part of the franchise will always be the games. The question right now, when are we getting a new one? That question is difficult to answer.
New Fallout Game When?
The latest game release in the franchise was on November 14, 2018, when Fallout 76 released. Since then there has not been a new game in the series and outside of rumors and speculation, it is currently unclear how long we will have to wait to get the next entry.
While there hasn’t been a brand new game in quite some time, it is worth mentioning that Bethesda has spent a significant amount of effort in improving Fallout 76, adding frequent content updates to the game and turning it into a genuinely great Fallout experience. We also have the “next-gen” update for Fallout 4 coming out on April 25th that will enhance the game. So while there hasn’t been anything “new” in terms of game releases, there has been plenty of Fallout content for already existing games.
Due to the success of the show, players are returning in droves to play games that were released 5, 10, and 15 years ago. We recently got word that the Fallout franchise had 5 million concurrent players in a single day following the TV shows release and that Fallout 76 in particular had been played by over 1 million players. It is safe to say that Fallout games are blowing up once again and reinvigorating interest in the series. Still, many players will be eager to jump into the next brand new experience, which is why the next release is so highly anticipated.
We know Fallout 5 is eventually coming, but that is likely at least 10 years away. The studio that will make that game, Bethesda Game Studios, is coming off of 2023’s Starfield and is currently working on the highly anticipated sequel to The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim. Unless Bethesda somehow fast tracks that game by spinning off a second studio or simply staffs up to manage multiple projects at once, it seems like we will be waiting quite a while for Fallout 5 to release.
Not all hope is lost if you’re eagerly anticipating a new Fallout game, though. Obsidian Entertainment, who made the fan favorite Fallout: New Vegas in 2010, could be up to the task of making a new entry. A rumor began making the rounds back in 2022 from friend of the site Jeff Grubb that Microsoft was beginning to discuss the possibility of making “New Vegas 2”. Other evidence of Obsidian being linked to Fallout includes Feargus Urquhart, Obsidian CEO and Fallout veteran, going on record multiple times saying he’d love the opportunity to work on the franchise again.
So far, this is all just conjecture, but it is clear that there is at least interest in Obsidian making another Fallout game. Unless work on the project has already begun behind closed doors though, we are likely still several years away from this becoming a reality. Maybe Microsoft will just reveal a “Fallout: New Vegas 2” title card in it’s upcoming June showcase and roll with that.
Outside of rumors of an Obsidian made Fallout, leaked info from the Microsoft v FTC trial suggests that at some point Bethesda was planning on releasing a Fallout 3 remaster. Plans change all the time, so it is possible this was at one point planned and has since been canceled, but we also haven’t heard anything yet to contradict the leak. So, for now, we have to consider a potential Fallout 3 remaster as a serious candidate for a “new” release in the Fallout franchise.
The Xbox Factor
We also must consider that with the newfound popularity of the series if Bethesda and Xbox will be more willing to greenlight projects from other studios. Will Bethesda be open to spinoffs from other studios? That is something we can’t answer today, but it is likely something that is being thought about.
Outside of considering what Bethesda themselves are comfortable with, what does Xbox want? Hit franchises that are bankable sources of income is what every major publisher wants. Fallout has always been a money maker, but the franchise has now elevated to new heights. Every game in the series is seeing a bump in player count due to how beloved the show is. Sales are skyrocketing in certain regions, and new milestones are being reached for games that are several years old.
While Xbox has always been a company that aims to foster a culture of creativity and developer comfortability, they are a business at the end of the day. It is great that these older games are selling well, but a new entry sometime in the not so distant future is likely something Xbox will want to see.
Will there be an internal push from Xbox executives to at least explore new games from non Bethesda studios to make sure games can come out in a reasonable time frame? It’s reasonable to think that these are serious discussions happening right now if they weren’t already happening before.
So What Happens Next?
The Fallout series has been very popular for a very long time, but the success of the show has reignited the conversation around the franchise. There are a lot of moving parts with a franchise as big as Fallout, and that makes it unclear what exactly the future holds. We know a season 2 is coming eventually, and likely more seasons after that. Fallout 5 will be here one day. Unfortunately, that day doesn’t appear to be anytime before the decade ends.
There have long been rumors of new Fallout games from Obsidian and at least one credible leak of a remaster. With Fallout’s re-emergence, thanks to the show it is reasonable to expect serious considerations to franchise expansion, including other transmedia projects and games, but that’s all just speculation.
While there are a lot of questions without definitive answers, one thing is clear, though: Fallout is huge, and Bethesda and Xbox will have to figure out how to successfully capitalize on the current momentum from now through Season 2 of the show and beyond.
